Hurricane Milton will be approaching Florida mid-week

Milton is currently a Tropical Storm located in the lower Caribbean in the Bay of Campeche traveling East/ Northeast into the Gulf of Mexico. The system will encounter very favorable conditions to develop over the next 24 – 48 hours, most likely becoming a major hurricane in the Gulf by Tuesday.

The various models are not currently in full agreement on either the landfall area or the projected intensity of Milton on landfall. The reason for this disagreement is the influence of a cold weather front that will be moving into the southeast around Tuesday night.

Milton will develop into a strong major hurricane given its favorable conditions over the next day or so but then will start to encounter less favorable conditions due to the cold front that will stem its development or weaken the storm on its approach to the FL coast. How much or how little the storm will be weakened is the question that the models are struggling with.

Generally speaking, if the cold front is weaker than expected, Milton will retain most of its full intensity and take a more northern route toward the Tampa Bay region. If the front is stronger, it will degrade the storm and push it more to the south towards either Ft. Myers, Charlotte County, or Naples.

Due to the angle of the storm’s approach, the greatest storm surge risks will be south of wherever the landfall location eventually is. Communities to the north side of the storm on the coast will receive an onshore flow that will prevent a significant surge.

The most likely timing for the arrival of the storm is Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. It will be a fairly compact storm, that will move quickly across the state, clearing out into the Atlantic by Thursday EOD.

Click here for Hurricane Resources